The World Bank has maintained its forecast of Ghana’s economic growth rate at 4.8% for 2026, according to its October 2026 Africa Economic Update. The Bretton Woods institution is projecting a slightly higher GDP growth of 4.9% for Ghana in 2027.
The projection follows stronger growth of 5.8% in 2024 and 6.0% in 2025. Although the 4.8% growth projected for 2026 represents a moderation from the previous two years, the World Bank says Ghana’s underlying economic recovery remains firm, supported by strong domestic demand and expanding digital services.
Growth Drivers: Services, ICT and Hydrocarbons
According to the World Bank, the growth will be driven by the services sector, a recovery in oil and gas activities, and ongoing performance tied to structural and fiscal reforms under national programmes.
“In Ghana, economic activity remained robust in the second quarter of 2026, although growth moderated slightly. Real GDP expanded by 6.0% year-on-year, down from 6.6% in the same period in 2025,” the report stated.
On the expenditure side, the Bank said growth was underpinned by strong domestic demand, with investment surging by 53.0% and domestic demand rising by 11.2%, signalling continued strength in private and public spending.
On the production side, services remained the main engine of growth, expanding by 8.0% and accounting for nearly three-fifths of overall GDP growth, with ICT activity rising by 30.9%. Industrial growth strengthened to 4.3% from 2.4% a year earlier, supported by a sharp increase in oil and gas production.
In contrast, agricultural growth slowed to 3.9% from 7.1%, reflecting a steep contraction in fishing activity.
Overall, the World Bank said growth remained concentrated in services, ICT, and hydrocarbons, while momentum weakened across parts of the non-oil economy.
Oil and Gas Sector Recovery
The recovery in oil and gas activities has been a key contributor to Ghana’s industrial growth. Ghana is set to record a net increase in crude oil production for the first time in several years. Output at the Jubilee field has risen from 60,000 to 85,000 barrels per day, with measurable gains also recorded at the TEN and Sankofa fields.
In June 2026, President John Dramani Mahama announced $3.5 billion in new commitments from global energy giants to reverse a six-year production slump, including $2 billion from Jubilee partners to drill up to 20 new wells and $1.5 billion from OCTP partners for field development and exploration.
The Greater Jubilee Plan of Further Development has also been approved, which will support the drilling of up to 20 additional wells across the Jubilee and TEN Fields, backed by an estimated $2 billion investment.
Debt Restructuring Boosts Investor Confidence
The World Bank also pointed to Ghana’s debt restructuring as a major milestone in the country’s economic recovery. Public debt fell from 70.1% of GDP at the end of 2024 to 48.8% at the end of 2025, before rising slightly to an estimated 52.6% in 2026. The overall fiscal deficit is also projected to narrow to 2.2% of GDP in 2026.
The World Bank said Ghana’s reclassification to moderate risk on both its external and overall debt positions during the 2026 Article IV consultation represents a significant improvement in the country’s debt outlook. It described Ghana as the first country since the 2022 debt distress wave to exit the high-risk debt category altogether.
The completion of the SADEREA debt exchange in July 2026, together with continued fiscal consolidation under the International Monetary Fund programme, has also helped improve investor confidence. Ghana’s sovereign spreads fell sharply, reflecting the improved risk assessment.
Inflation Easing
The World Bank also highlighted Ghana’s progress in bringing down inflation. Consumer price inflation is projected to fall from 22.9% in 2024 and 14.2% in 2025 to 8.0% in 2026, with inflation expected to remain around that level through 2028.
Despite the significant decline in inflation, the Bank of Ghana has maintained a cautious monetary policy stance, particularly in view of risks from global energy prices. The Bank of Ghana maintained its policy rate at 14% after assessing that the balance of risks to inflation and economic growth warranted a cautious approach.
The country’s progress in economic stabilisation was further underscored by IMF programme milestones. In May 2026, Ghana reached a staff-level agreement with the IMF on the sixth review under the Extended Credit Facility, and in August 2026, the IMF approved a final disbursement of $371 million, bringing its $3 billion support programme to completion.
Private Sector Sentiment
Private sector sentiment improved towards the end of the second quarter, with Ghana’s S&P Global Purchasing Managers’ Index rising to 50.8 in August from 49.2 in July. The reading above 50 indicates a return to expansionary territory, supported by stronger customer demand and increased hiring.
Government’s 2026 Budget Targets
The World Bank’s 4.8% projection aligns with the Government of Ghana’s own growth target for 2026. The 2026 Budget, themed “Resetting for Growth, Jobs, and Economic Transformation,” set a real GDP growth target of at least 4.8%, an end-of-year inflation target of 8.0% ±2.0%, and a primary surplus of 1.5% of GDP.
The government’s 2026 Mid-Year Budget Review confirmed these targets remain on course, with Finance Minister Dr. Cassiel Ato Forson stating that Ghana’s economic recovery has been anchored on fiscal correction, modernisation of the tax regime, inflation targeting, and exchange rate stability.
Sub-Saharan Africa and Regional Outlook
Meanwhile, economic growth in the West and Central Africa (AFW) subregion is projected to remain steady at 4.5% in 2026, unchanged from 2025, before strengthening modestly to an annual average of 4.7% in 2027–28.
The report said subregional performance continues to be shaped by developments in Nigeria, the largest economy in AFW. Excluding Nigeria, growth is estimated to moderate from a robust 5.4% in 2025 to 5.0% in 2026, before recovering to an average of 5.3% during 2027–28.
Also, growth in Sub-Saharan Africa is expected to increase to 4.3% in 2026, but its poverty-reducing impact will likely remain limited. The World Bank raised its 2026 growth forecast for Sub-Saharan Africa by 0.3 percentage points to 4.3%, reflecting stronger-than-expected performance across several economies in the region.
The Path Ahead
Ghana’s economic outlook remains positive, with the World Bank projecting real GDP growth to edge up to 4.9% in 2027 and 5.0% in 2028. However, risks remain, including global energy price volatility, geopolitical tensions, and the need to sustain fiscal consolidation beyond the IMF programme.
Ghana’s exit from the IMF-supported programme, as highlighted by the Bank of Ghana Governor Dr. Johnson Asiamah in April 2026, marks a significant milestone. The Governor noted that Ghana is moving from “fixing” its problems to “winning” on the world stage, with prices for everyday items stabilised, inflation dropping from about 24% at the end of 2024 to just 3.2% by March 2026, and the Ghana Cedi gaining over 40% in value.
The World Bank’s latest assessment confirms that while Ghana’s growth momentum has moderated from its post-crisis peak, the country remains on a firm recovery path, underpinned by macroeconomic stabilisation, debt restructuring gains, and the expanding role of digital services in the economy.
