Global diesel supplies are facing mounting pressure as attacks on Russian refineries and broader geopolitical disruptions force countries to scramble for emergency stockpiles, Ghana’s National Petroleum Authority (NPA) has warned, noting that the tightening market has significant implications for import-dependent nations like Ghana.
Abass Tasunti, Director of Economic Regulation and Planning at the NPA, told Joy News’ PM Express Business Edition on Thursday that the diesel market has become the focal point of global energy concerns. “There’s a lot of attention on diesel at the moment,” he said .
Russian Refinery Attacks Cut Deep
Mr Tasunti explained that Russia’s role as a major diesel supplier to Europe means disruptions to its output have far-reaching consequences. Western restrictions on Russian diesel had previously redirected supplies to other markets, including Ghana and other African countries, which benefited from those flows. However, attacks on Russian refineries have knocked out approximately 30 percent of the country’s diesel supply, prompting Moscow to restrict exports to meet domestic needs .
“When major supply sources are shut or closed, we don’t have enough products on the market, and so it will cause, of course, economics comes in supply and demand factors,” Mr Tasunti said .
The scale of the disruption is significant. According to industry analysis, Ukraine has launched more than 100 drone attacks on Russian refineries over the past few months, targeting some 30 facilities representing roughly 80 percent of the country’s total refining capacity . Russia’s net diesel exports fell by approximately 80 percent year-on-year in the third quarter of 2026, from around 1.05 million barrels per day to just 200,000 barrels per day, according to Rystad Energy . Moscow has extended its ban on diesel exports by direct producers through October 31, with a broader fuel export ban remaining in place until January 31, 2027 .
Emergency Reserve Releases Offer Short-Term Relief
In response to the shortage, European countries have agreed to release about 42 million barrels of diesel from strategic reserves over three months, with France contributing approximately 10 million barrels and Spain confirming about four million barrels, Mr Tasunti said . This follows a broader G7 agreement in early October to release up to 100 million barrels of diesel and crude oil from emergency reserves over four months, coordinated through the International Energy Agency .
Mr Tasunti described the releases as a short-term response to the shortage but cautioned that continued attacks on Russian refineries leave prospects for additional supplies uncertain .
Ghana’s Domestic Buffer
Ghana’s exposure to the global diesel crunch is partially mitigated by domestic refining capacity. The Tema Oil Refinery (TOR) resumed operations in December 2025 after being idle since April 2021, and its Managing Director, Edmond Kombat, said in late October that but for TOR’s restoration and government interventions, fuel prices could have reached between GH¢22 and GH¢32 per litre . Current projections from the Chamber of Oil Marketing Companies put diesel at around GH¢19.30 per litre for cash purchases .
However, international pressure remains evident. The Chamber of Petroleum Consumers (COPEC) projected in late September that diesel prices would rise by 22.91 percent to GH¢22.42 per litre from October 1, driven by a surge in global crude prices from $103.07 to $124 per barrel .
LPG Provides a Contrast
While diesel faces acute pressure, Mr Tasunti also explained why Ghana’s liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) prices have moved in the opposite direction. He said the country’s LPG tender programme typically secures a cargo sufficient for one month, with the import price fixed for that period.
“And so, the price at which the product was imported is locked in for that one month period,” he said . This arrangement has cushioned consumers against a sharp increase in the next pricing window, as the available LPG was purchased at a lower price earlier. However, the same mechanism can delay the effect of price changes—a previous LPG increase reflected the higher cost of a replacement cargo after the earlier month-long pricing period ended .
Outlook Remains Uncertain
Analysts expect the global diesel shortage to persist well into 2027, as damaged Middle Eastern and Russian refineries continue to constrain supplies . Morgan Stanley has noted that the second quarter of 2027 will see unusually high planned refinery maintenance that was deferred this year, potentially extending tightness in global fuel markets .
For Ghana, the immediate cushion comes from a combination of domestic refining and the timing of import arrangements. But as Mr Tasunti’s comments make clear, the country remains exposed to a global diesel market where supply disruptions show little sign of abating in the near term.
