Ghana’s crude oil production has increased by about 30% this year, reversing five years of sustained decline, Energy and Green Transition Minister John Abdulai Jinapor has announced.
Speaking at African Energy Week in Cape Town, South Africa, on Tuesday, October 13, Mr Jinapor said the increase marked a significant turnaround in the country’s oil production performance.
“We have seen a continued systematic decline in oil output over the past five years. But this year, I am happy to announce that oil production has increased by about 30%,” he said.
Background: Five Years of Steep Decline
Ghana’s commercial oil production began with the Jubilee Field in 2010 and reached a peak of approximately 195,000 barrels per day in 2019. However, output fell for six consecutive years, from 71.44 million barrels in 2019 to 37.3 million barrels in 2025, representing an average annual decline of 9%.
The decline was driven by multiple factors, including a reactive approach to maintenance that led to costly, prolonged shutdowns particularly on the Jubilee FPSO, delays in completing the 2018 licensing round awards, the sudden exit of ExxonMobil from the country, and the inability to transform the Pecan block discoveries into a producing asset more than a decade after their discovery.
The Jubilee Field, which remains the country’s largest producing field, recorded 22.21 million barrels in 2025, representing a 30.3% decline from 31.85 million barrels in 2024, partly due to a shutdown between March 26 and April 8, 2025. The TEN and Sankofa fields also recorded declines in crude output during the same period.
The $2 Billion Investment Framework
The rebound follows renewed investment in the country’s upstream petroleum sector, including a $2 billion memorandum of understanding signed with Kosmos Energy and other Jubilee partners in 2025 to extend the Jubilee and Tweneboa-Enyenra-Ntomme (TEN) licences to 2040.
The MOU, signed on June 4, 2025, by the Government of Ghana, Tullow Oil plc, Kosmos Energy, PetroSA, Ghana National Petroleum Company (GNPC) and Explorco, includes approval to drill up to 20 additional wells in the Jubilee field, representing investment of up to $2 billion in Ghana over the life of the licences.
A number of key principles are covered within the MOU, including a commitment to increase the supply of gas from the Jubilee and TEN fields to approximately 130 million standard cubic feet per day, a reduced gas price for Jubilee associated gas, a guaranteed reimbursement mechanism for gas sales, and investment in GNPC and the Petroleum Commission’s capacity with a focus on advanced technology.
Following the licence extensions, the government approved an amended Jubilee development plan covering up to 20 additional wells. The programme is expected to support higher output and strengthen domestic gas supply.
Jubilee Drilling Campaign Accelerates
Kosmos Energy’s August results indicated that the Jubilee partners were seeking a rig for a drilling campaign of up to 10 wells between 2027 and 2028, with operations expected to begin in mid-2027.
Jubilee averaged approximately 72,000 barrels of oil per day on a gross basis in the second quarter of 2026, with an exit rate above 85,000 barrels per day, according to Kosmos Energy company announcements. The J76 and J77 wells came online in June and July, respectively.
Jubilee Field crude oil production rose to 76,032 barrels per day in June 2026, the highest monthly output recorded during the first half of the year, up from 67,256 barrels per day in January and 68,909 barrels per day in May. With the J50 well online, Kosmos expects Jubilee gross production to exceed 90,000 barrels of oil per day.
Kosmos has maintained its 2026 capital expenditure budget at $350 million. The spending plan forms part of a broader effort to increase production, control costs and reduce debt.
Kosmos Energy Chief Executive Officer Andy Inglis said the licence extension had strengthened the company’s confidence to invest in the field, including through technology, while supporting efforts to supply gas to Ghana.
“As we deal with energy security, it also comes down to energy affordability. We agreed to supply low-cost gas to the country,” he said.
$3.5 Billion in Total Investment Commitments
Beyond the Jubilee and TEN framework, the government has secured approximately $1.5 billion from the Offshore Cape Three Points (OCTP) partners for additional field development and exploration activities, bringing total upstream investment commitments to approximately $3.5 billion.
The government’s investor-friendly reforms have already secured over $3.5 billion in new investment commitments, according to the 2026 Budget Statement.
Fiscal Reforms to Attract New Investment
Beyond expanding existing fields, the government is pursuing comprehensive changes to the country’s upstream fiscal regime to attract new investment and sustain production.
Mr Jinapor said the proposed reforms were intended to make Ghana’s petroleum sector more competitive and investor-friendly. The reforms include new fiscal terms based on water depth, reducing GNPC’s initial carried interest from 15% to 10%, extending petroleum agreement tenure from 25 to 30 years, and replacing the traditional signature bonus with a one-time payment tied to a post-discovery declaration of commerciality.
The energy and finance ministers have approved the changes, which are expected to proceed to Cabinet and then Parliament, with the government targeting passage before the end of 2026.
Dr Jinapor said the government was working to build trust with operators and make the industry more attractive to investors. “We are reforming our fiscal regime, making it more competitive and friendly,” he said.
Chevron, Shell and Petrobras Deals in Pipeline
Ghana has signed a non-binding memorandum of understanding with Shell Overseas Holdings and Chevron Sub-Saharan Africa Ventures covering exploration and production rights over the South Deepwater Tano Cape Three Points block. The agreement was signed on September 1, 2026, at the opening of Africa Oil Week in Accra.
The 3,482 sq km block sits in the deep-to-ultra-deepwater Tano Basin off Ghana’s Western region, in water depths approaching 3.5 kilometres. The block’s hydrocarbon potential is now estimated at more than 3 billion barrels.
Mr Jinapor said Ghana would sign a formal agreement with Chevron after parliamentary approval. The government is also holding discussions with Shell, CNOOC and Brazil’s Petrobras as it seeks to attract more international oil companies into the sector.
“We have held a positive meeting with Petrobras and we are working toward a deal,” he said.
Gas-to-Power Strategy
The recovery in oil production is closely linked to the government’s broader energy strategy, which prioritises increased domestic gas supply for power generation.
Ghana’s Gas-to-Power Strategy aims to shift from costly light crude to cleaner, locally produced natural gas, cutting generation costs by up to 75%, strengthening energy security and aligning with the country’s climate goals, according to the 2026 Budget Statement.
The Jubilee and TEN field partners now supply about 130 million standard cubic feet per day of gas, up from 110 million standard cubic feet per day. The OCTP partners have expanded capacity from 240 to 270 million standard cubic feet per day.
Beginning 2026, the government will commence construction of a 1,200-megawatt state-owned thermal power plant to offtake additional gas from the OCTP partners and the Ghana Gas Processing Plant (GPP) 2.
Mr Jinapor called for stronger regional cooperation and increased domestic utilisation of natural gas to improve Africa’s energy security while supporting industrial development, highlighting the potential of the West African Gas Pipeline as a key regional infrastructure asset.
Revenue Outlook Improves
The production rebound is expected to improve Ghana’s fiscal outlook. The government now expects to earn about $1.5 billion from petroleum revenue in 2026, significantly higher than the $985 million projected in the national budget earlier this year.
Ghana’s Petroleum Funds recorded a combined balance of $1.64 billion at the end of the first half of 2026, with total allocations of $197.13 million from petroleum revenues during the six-month period.
Finance Minister Cassiel Ato Forson has projected oil and gas receipts at GH¢13.6 billion for the 2026 fiscal year, driven by improved efficiency across producing fields and steady global oil prices.
