Fuel prices are expected to decline from today as Oil Marketing Companies (OMCs) begin implementing new prices for the second pricing window of October, offering some relief to consumers after months of sustained increases.
Petrol prices are projected to fall by close to 2%, while diesel prices are expected to decline by 3.32%, despite recent depreciation of the cedi, which is expected to limit the gains from lower international petroleum product prices.
On a cash-purchase basis, petrol is projected to sell at GH¢17.67 per litre, while diesel is expected to retail at GH¢19.30 per litre.
Background: A Year of Price Volatility
The expected reductions follow a turbulent year for fuel consumers. In April 2026, pump prices surged by 15%, with petrol reaching GH¢13.30 per litre and diesel at GH¢17.10, prompting the government to introduce temporary subsidies of GH¢0.36 per litre of petrol and GH¢2 per litre of diesel to cushion households and transport operators.
Prices continued to climb through the second half of the year. In September, the National Petroleum Authority (NPA) raised the price floor for petrol to GH¢16 per litre and diesel to GH¢16.77 per litre. By the first pricing window of October, pump prices had risen to GH¢16.90 for petrol and GH¢18.24 for diesel, with projections from the Chamber of Petroleum Consumers (COPEC) warning that diesel could surge to GH¢22.42 per litre without intervention.
Government Interventions Stabilise Prices
The expected reductions follow a first pricing window in October during which major oil marketing companies maintained their pump prices, supported by government interventions.
These included agreements by the Sentuo Oil Refinery and the Tema Oil Refinery to maintain the prices at which they supplied petroleum products to Bulk Distribution Companies at levels recorded in the previous pricing window. The government also suspended the GH¢1-per-litre Energy Sector Shortfall and Debt Repayment Levy (D-Levy) on diesel for October and November, while extending the existing GH¢2-per-litre relief for diesel consumers.
Under the revised arrangement, GH¢1 of the relief comes from reductions in statutory margins, while the remaining GH¢1 comes from the suspension of the D-Levy. The measures were intended to protect consumers from sudden price increases and prevent the fuel queues and supply disruptions seen in other countries.
“Because the SREF [Supplier Reference Exchange Rate] is a very big indicator in the determination of the S pump, as long as your SREF does not change, basically your S pump should also reflect the same,” said Dr Riverson Oppong, Chief Executive of the Chamber of Oil Marketing Companies (COMAC).
NPA Announces New Price Floors
The NPA has set new minimum prices for petroleum products for the second pricing window of October, effective October 16 to 31, 2026.
Under the revised rates, the minimum price for petrol is set at GH¢16.09 per litre, down from GH¢16.45 in the first pricing window of October. Diesel has a floor price of GH¢17.09 per litre, reduced from GH¢17.97. The minimum price for LPG, however, has been increased from GH¢11.10 to GH¢13.87 per kilogramme.
The NPA also set the price floor for Marine Gas Oil (MGO) Local at GH¢17.20 per litre and kerosene at GH¢17.45 per litre.
The Authority has directed all OMCs and LPG Marketing Companies to comply with the announced floors during the period. However, the NPA explained that the price floors exclude premiums charged by International Oil Trading Companies, the operating margins of Bulk Import, Distribution and Export Companies, and the marketers’ and dealers’ margins of OMCs and LPGMCs.
“As per the Petroleum Product Pricing Guidelines (PPPG), all Oil Marketing Companies and LPG Marketing Companies are entreated to comply with the above price floors for the window under consideration,” the NPA stated in a notice issued on October 12, 2026.
International Market and Cedi Dynamics
The projected changes follow mixed movements in refined petroleum product prices on the international market. LPG prices increased by 7.77%, while diesel and petrol prices declined by 6.68% and 3.93%, respectively.
However, the depreciation of the cedi against the US dollar has limited the benefits of falling international fuel prices. The local currency lost 1.61% of its value against the dollar during the review period, trading at an average bank rate of GH¢11.8222 to one dollar between September 26 and October 11, 2026. The cedi has also lost more than 11% of its value against the dollar since the beginning of the year.
Since Ghana imports refined petroleum products, a weaker cedi increases the cost of purchasing fuel in dollars. Further depreciation could therefore push local fuel prices up, even when international prices decline.
Additionally, average crude oil prices increased by 2.03% to US124.21 per barrel in the preceding pricing period. The increase came amid renewed concerns about global oil supplies, following concerns from Ukraine over a proposed US-backed energy ceasefire and fresh attacks on Saudi Arabia during the war with Iran.
LPG Consumers Face Higher Costs
Unlike petrol and diesel, LPG prices are expected to rise by 18.50% during the same period. COMAC projects that LPG will sell at GH¢20.60 per kilogramme on a cash-purchase basis. The increase could raise cooking costs for households, restaurants and other businesses that depend on LPG.
Outlook
Actual pump prices may vary across outlets depending on the additional costs and margins applied by individual Oil Marketing Companies. Motorists are advised to check prices at their preferred stations before purchasing.
The expected reductions provide some respite for transport operators, businesses and households following successive increases in fuel prices earlier this year. However, analysts caution that continued cedi depreciation and volatile international crude oil prices could reverse the gains in subsequent pricing windows.
