Ghana may be an oil-producing nation, but it continues to spend more on imported refined petroleum products than on any other single item—a structural anomaly that the Ghana Statistical Service (GSS) has flagged as a missed opportunity for domestic value addition and foreign exchange savings.
According to the GSS’s newly released report, “Ghana’s Merchandise Trade, 2004–2025: Two Decades in Review,” mineral fuels and oils—primarily refined petrol, diesel, and aviation fuel—accounted for 25.7 per cent of total imports in 2025, making them the country’s largest import category by a wide margin. This marks a persistent trend that has dominated Ghana’s import bill since 2010, when commercial oil production first began at the Jubilee Field.
The Crude Paradox
The report highlights a fundamental contradiction in Ghana’s trade structure: the country exports crude oil in its raw form—worth some US$1.6 billion in 2025—yet imports refined products to meet domestic demand. “We ship out crude oil and buy back refined fuel—value we could capture at home,” the report states, underscoring the loss of potential refining margins, job creation, and foreign exchange retention.
Ghana’s crude oil production, which peaked at around 190,000 barrels per day in 2019, has since declined to roughly 140,000 barrels per day due to natural field depletion and limited investment in new exploration. Yet even at peak production, the country’s sole state-owned refinery—the Tema Oil Refinery (TOR)—has operated far below its installed capacity of 45,000 barrels per day, often running at just 20–30 per cent due to chronic feedstock shortages, mechanical breakdowns, and financial insolvency. As a result, over 90 per cent of Ghana’s refined fuel demand is met through imports, exposing the economy to global price volatility, shipping costs, and foreign currency pressures.
Fuel Imports: A Heavy Burden
The GSS data shows that fuel imports have consistently accounted for between 20 and 30 per cent of Ghana’s total import bill over the past 15 years. In 2025, with global oil prices averaging around US5.3 billion—equivalent to nearly 8 per cent of Ghana’s GDP. This expenditure drains foreign reserves, contributes to trade deficits (even though Ghana has overall surpluses lately due to gold exports), and puts upward pressure on domestic pump prices, which in turn feed into inflation.
The report notes that other major imports include vehicles and automotive parts (15.4 per cent) and machinery and electrical equipment (13.9 per cent), but fuel remains the single largest line item, dwarfing even food imports.
Policy Failures and Missed Opportunities
The paradox has been a subject of policy debate for over a decade. Governments have repeatedly promised to revamp TOR, attract private investment in refining, and pursue joint ventures with international oil companies. In 2021, the government signed a memorandum of understanding with the Italian firm ENI and the state-owned Ghana National Petroleum Corporation (GNPC) to explore a potential upgrade of TOR to process local crude, but the project stalled amid financing disputes and the broader fiscal consolidation under the IMF programme.
In 2024, the government announced a public-private partnership to build a new 200,000-barrel-per-day refinery at the port of Takoradi, touted as a game-changer for the sector. However, the project remains in the feasibility stage, with no clear timeline for construction, and critics have questioned its viability given the high capital costs—estimated at over US$5 billion—and the global shift toward cleaner energy.
Meanwhile, Ghana’s neighbours—Côte d’Ivoire and Nigeria—have invested in upgrading their own refineries, with Nigeria’s Dangote Refinery (650,000 barrels per day) and Côte d’Ivoire’s SIR Refinery (120,000 barrels per day) now exporting refined products to the sub-region. Ghana, ironically, imports refined fuel from both countries, further exacerbating the trade deficit with its immediate neighbours.
GSS Recommendations: “Make More and Import Less”
The GSS report does not mince words. It calls on policymakers to “strengthen domestic refining where viable” as one of four key priorities for economic transformation—alongside value addition in gold and cocoa, faster customs clearance, and lower transport costs. The report argues that reducing the refined-fuel import bill would have cascading benefits:
· Foreign exchange savings: Every dollar spent on imported fuel is a dollar that could be used for capital goods, debt service, or reserve accumulation.
· Job creation: A functional refining sector would support thousands of direct and indirect jobs in engineering, logistics, and maintenance.
· Energy security: Domestic refining would insulate Ghana from supply chain disruptions and geopolitical shocks, such as the ongoing Red Sea attacks that have raised freight costs for imported fuel.
· Industrial spin-offs: Refining by-products—such as bitumen, lubricants, and petrochemicals—could feed into Ghana’s construction and manufacturing sectors.
The report also recommends exploring modular refineries—smaller, less capital-intensive units that can be built faster and tailored to local crude quality—as an interim solution while larger projects mature.
Broader Trade Context
The fuel import data is part of the larger 21-year trade review, which shows that Ghana’s total merchandise trade expanded from US52.5 billion in 2025. While the country has recorded trade surpluses in 2023, 2024, and 2025—driven largely by soaring gold prices—the GSS warns that these surpluses are fragile. Gold accounts for 63.1 per cent of exports, and without a reduction in the fuel import bill, any downturn in gold prices could quickly reverse the trade balance.
The report’s overarching theme is “make more and import less.” It urges Ghana to refine its own fuel, process its own cocoa into finished chocolate, and manufacture more of the vehicles, machinery, and plastics it currently imports. “We cannot rely on commodity exports to fund our import addiction forever,” the report concludes.
What Next?
The government has yet to issue a formal response to the GSS report, but the Ministry of Energy has previously indicated that it is reviewing bids from several international consortia to revive TOR under a concessionary model. The African Development Bank and the World Bank have also expressed interest in supporting Ghana’s refining infrastructure, provided the country commits to transparent procurement and fiscal discipline.
For now, however, the numbers tell a stark story: Ghana sells crude and buys finished fuel—and until that equation changes, the country will continue to bleed foreign exchange, remain exposed to global price shocks, and fall short of its industrialisation ambitions. As the GSS report puts it, the opportunity is clear; the challenge lies in execution.
