Prices of petroleum products are expected to see marginal increases at the pump starting Thursday, October 1, 2026, according to the latest pricing outlook from the Chamber of Oil Marketing Companies (COMAC).
The outlook, which covers the first pricing window for October, points to increases in petrol, diesel and Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) prices. According to COMAC data, petrol prices could increase by up to 3.31%, potentially pushing the price to about GH¢17.91 per litre. Diesel could increase by 3.32% to 5.60%, with the price potentially reaching GH¢19.60 per litre for credit purchases and GH¢19.30 per litre for cash purchases. LPG is also expected to increase by about 2.25%, with the price projected at approximately GH¢17.06 per kilogramme.
Rising Crude Oil and Product Prices
COMAC attributed the expected increases largely to rising crude oil and refined petroleum product prices on the international market, coupled with depreciation of the cedi. The Chamber said average crude oil prices increased by 19.42% to US$124.20 per barrel for the October 1 pricing window.
All refined petroleum products also recorded increases, with petrol rising by 2.43%, diesel by 6.91% and LPG recording the highest increase of 8.55%.
COMAC noted that international oil prices had edged higher as strong demand for physical crude offset easing supply disruptions in the Middle East and signs of progress towards reopening the Strait of Hormuz. However, it said repeated setbacks had kept traders cautious, amid conflicting signals over a possible US-Iran ceasefire and reports that Iranian officials doubt an agreement will be reached before the US midterm elections in November.
The Chamber also pointed to additional pressure on diesel prices from the Russia-Ukraine war and uncertainty surrounding measures by the United States to contain rising fuel prices.
Cedi Depreciation Compounds Pressure
The performance of the cedi is another factor expected to influence pump prices. COMAC said the local currency depreciated by 1.27% to GH¢11.6321 to US$1, based on average bank rates between September 12 and 26, 2026. This represents a gradual reversal of the cedi’s strong performance in the first quarter, with the currency recording a 6.12% depreciation in the third quarter of 2026.
The broader depreciation trend has been more severe. Bank of Ghana data show the cedi has weakened by about 9.5% against the US dollar in the first nine months of 2026, trading at approximately GH¢11.55 to US$1 in September, compared with GH¢10.45 at the end of December 2025. The cedi remained under pressure through late September, extending its year-to-date depreciation to 10.04% against the dollar, according to Adomonline.
NPA Raises Price Floors
Meanwhile, the National Petroleum Authority (NPA) has increased the price floors for petroleum products for the first pricing window of October. Market data sighted by JOYBUSINESS shows that the price floor for petrol has increased from GH¢16.00 to GH¢16.45 per litre. The floor for diesel has also increased from GH¢16.77 to GH¢17.97 per litre. For LPG, the price floor has moved from GH¢10.97 to GH¢11.10 per kilogramme.
The NPA’s price floors do not include premiums charged by International Oil Trading Companies (IOTCs), operating margins of Bulk Import, Distribution and Export Companies (BIDECs), or the margins of Oil Marketing Companies and LPG Marketing Companies. According to the NPA, those charges will be independently determined by the respective companies in accordance with the prescribed Petroleum Products Pricing Formula.
The pricing formula operates on a straightforward principle: international product price multiplied by the exchange rate, plus taxes and levies, plus margins equals the domestic pump price. Taxes, levies and regulatory margins account for 26% of the ex-pump price, while marketers and dealers’ margins account for 4%, with the remaining 70% representing the ex-refinery price.
Government Maintains GH¢2 Diesel Intervention
The government’s temporary reduction in selected statutory diesel margins under the Petroleum Price Build-Up has been extended until further notice, maintaining the government-industry burden-sharing arrangement introduced on April 16, 2026.
Under the latest arrangement, the government will suspend the GH¢1-per-litre Energy Sector Shortfall and Debt Repayment Levy (D-Levy) on diesel for October and November, while maintaining the existing GH¢2-per-litre relief for diesel consumers. Instead of absorbing the full GH¢2 through reductions in statutory margins, the government will now provide GH¢1 through margin reductions and the remaining GH¢1 by suspending the D-Levy.
The D-Levy was introduced under the Energy Sector Levies (Amendment) Act, 2025 (Act 1135), consolidating several existing levies—including the Energy Debt Recovery Levy, the Energy Sector Recovery Levy (Delta Fund), the Price Stabilisation and Recovery Levy and the Sanitation and Pollution Levy—into a single levy to service legacy debts and cater for energy sector shortfalls.
The extension marks the government’s fourth intervention to cushion consumers against rising fuel prices, having first introduced the measure on April 16, 2026, when it absorbed GH¢2.00 per litre on diesel and GH¢0.36 per litre on petrol. The intervention has been reviewed and extended multiple times since, with the government spending more than GH¢1 billion cushioning consumers from rising fuel prices as of September 2026.
COPEC Projects Even Sharper Increases
The Chamber of Petroleum Consumers (COPEC) has projected steeper increases than COMAC. In a statement issued on Tuesday, September 29, and signed by its Executive Secretary, Duncan Amoah, COPEC projected a 5.21% increase in petrol prices and a 22.91% rise in diesel prices from Thursday, October 1, 2026.
COPEC projects the average retail price of petrol to rise from GH¢16.90 to GH¢17.78 per litre, while diesel is expected to increase from GH¢18.24 to GH¢22.42 per litre. The Chamber attributed the expected increases to higher international petroleum prices and a marginal depreciation of the Ghana cedi against the US dollar, noting that crude oil prices rose from $103.07 to $124 per barrel during the pricing window, while the cedi depreciated by about 1.20% against the dollar.
COPEC projects diesel could sell within a range of GH¢19.40 per litre minimum to GH¢21.44 per litre maximum within a ±5% range of its projection, depending on developments in the international market and whether government intervenes. LPG prices are also expected to increase to GH¢15.68 per kilogramme after its international Free on Board (FOB) price rose from $712.43 to $777.59 per metric tonne.
Transport Fares Already Up 8%
The anticipated fuel price increases have already contributed to an 8% increase in transport fares, which took effect on Saturday, September 26, 2026. The Ghana Private Road Transport Union (GPRTU) and the Ghana Road Transport Coordinating Council (GRTCC) announced the upward adjustment following an agreement with the government.
Under the new arrangement, a standard intra-city fare of GH¢5 increased to GH¢5.50, while passengers who previously paid GH¢10 now pay GH¢11. At the higher end of the intra-city schedule, a GH¢30 fare rose to GH¢32.40, while the highest listed fare of GH¢34 increased to GH¢36.80. For shared taxis, passengers travelling up to four kilometres saw fares rise from GH¢2.60 to GH¢2.90, while a journey of up to 40 kilometres increased from GH¢18.70 to GH¢20.20. Inter-city journeys were also affected: a GH¢25 fare rose to GH¢27, while a GH¢100 fare increased to GH¢108.
The transport operators attributed the increase to changes in the ex-pump prices of petroleum products, rising spare parts costs, vehicle maintenance expenses and other operational costs. However, the unions acknowledged that government intervention on the price of diesel had helped to moderate the extent of the increase.
The fare adjustment was the first official upward review since a 15% decrease in May 2025. Earlier in 2026, between January and March, transport unions had warned of possible fare hikes after petrol rose to GH¢14.32 per litre and diesel to GH¢16.10 per litre.
What Happens Next
The latest projections come amid continued volatility in the international oil market, with COMAC warning that developments in global crude supply, refined-product prices and exchange-rate movements would remain key factors influencing domestic fuel prices.
The government’s decision to maintain the GH¢2-per-litre intervention on diesel is expected to cushion consumers from part of the projected increase in diesel prices, while shifting the source of the intervention from statutory margins to a temporary suspension of the D-Levy. The arrangement is expected to apply for October and November, after which the government’s approach could be reviewed.
With international oil prices remaining volatile and the cedi under continued pressure, the sustainability of the intervention—and the fiscal and downstream-sector risks it carries—will remain a key concern in the months ahead.
