The Bank of Ghana has issued a stark warning that the country’s external buffers are coming under increasing strain, driven by a slowdown in gold shipments and a pause in gold exports by the Ghana Gold Board (GoldBod) since mid-August 2026. The caution comes as the central bank’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) convenes for its 132nd regular meeting to assess the risks facing the economy.
Speaking at the opening of the MPC meeting on Wednesday, the Governor of the Bank of Ghana, Dr. Johnson Asiama, said the combination of a weaker current account, declining reserves, and the pause in GoldBod’s exports requires close monitoring ahead of the usual rise in foreign exchange demand in the fourth quarter. “The weaker current account, the decline in reserves, and the pause in gold exports by GoldBod since mid-August call for a careful look at our buffers ahead of the usual rise in foreign exchange demand in the fourth quarter,” he stated.
GoldBod’s Local Refining Directive and Export Pause
The export pause follows a significant policy shift by GoldBod. On 24 August 2026, the Board issued a directive requiring all Self-Financing Aggregators (SFAs) to refine gold doré locally before export, effective 1 September 2026. The directive, issued under the Ghana Gold Board Act, 2025 (Act 1140), mandates that no unrefined gold doré will be approved for export from that date. All refining must take place at a refinery approved or designated by GoldBod, with costs borne by the SFA or its approved offtaker.
The measure effectively halted the export of unrefined artisanal and small-scale gold doré, a trade that shipped approximately 104 tonnes abroad in 2025 and generated about US$10.8 billion in foreign exchange. While the policy is designed to retain more value within Ghana by capturing refining income and creating additional revenue for domestic refineries, it has caused a temporary disruption in export flows.
Reserves Under Strain
Ghana’s gross international reserves have declined significantly through 2026. Reserves stood at approximately US12.9 billion by end-June 2026, equivalent to about 5.0 months of import cover. The Governor noted that reserves currently provide about 4.2 months of import cover, a further deterioration from mid-year levels.
The decline has been attributed to a combination of factors, including a weaker current account and external pressures. The current account, which recorded a surplus of US$5.10 billion in the first half of 2026, is now projected to record a deficit in the third quarter as gold shipments slow and service payments increase.
Policy Rate Decision Looms
The MPC’s deliberations this week are further complicated by rising inflation and currency pressures. Inflation has climbed to 5%, while the policy rate has remained at 14% since a 150 basis point cut in March 2026. Some market analysts had projected a further reduction to between 12% and 13% at this meeting, but the deteriorating external position and renewed pressure on the cedi may prompt the Committee to hold the rate steady.
The cedi has faced renewed depreciation pressure, recording a cumulative depreciation of about 9.5% against the US dollar as of mid-July 2026. With fourth-quarter import demand typically rising, the central bank faces a delicate balancing act between supporting economic activity and safeguarding external stability.
Rebuilding Reserves a Priority
Governor Asiama stressed that rebuilding Ghana’s reserves will be a key priority in the coming months. The government’s Ghana Accelerated National Reserve Accumulation Policy (GANRAP) aims to raise reserves to 8.6 months of import cover by end-2026 and 15 months by 2028, leveraging gold purchases to strengthen foreign exchange buffers.
GoldBod has been a central pillar of this strategy. The Board generated US646.59 million made available to the Bank of Ghana for reserve accumulation under GANRAP. For September, GoldBod targeted US700 million earmarked for reserve accumulation.
However, the pause in exports since mid-August has temporarily interrupted this flow. GoldBod has been transitioning away from a Bank of Ghana-backed purchasing arrangement to a market-based funding structure, with fifteen commercial banks expressing interest in providing financing for gold purchases. The agency successfully tested the new model on 3 August 2026, raising US$75 million from commercial banks within 48 hours.
The MPC’s policy decision, expected on Thursday, 24 September 2026, will be closely watched by markets seeking signals on how the central bank intends to navigate the twin challenges of rising inflation and a weakening external position.
