The International Monetary Fund (IMF) Resident Representative in Ghana, Dr Adrian Alter, has described the country’s economic recovery as “quite impressive,” noting that key macroeconomic indicators have performed significantly better than initially projected under the IMF-supported programme.
Speaking in an interview with Bernard Avle on Channel One TV’s The Point of View, Dr Alter attributed the strong performance to robust policy reforms implemented by the government, alongside favourable external conditions, particularly historically high gold prices .
“Ghana’s recovery has been quite impressive, faster and better than expected. I would say all macroeconomic indicators outperform initial expectations in 2023, and that is quite, quite impressive,” he stated.
Key Macroeconomic Gains
Dr Alter highlighted several notable achievements under the three-year Extended Credit Facility (ECF) programme, which began in May 2023 following Ghana’s severe economic crisis in 2022:
· Inflation: Declined sharply from more than 50% to below 5%, with the June 2026 figure recorded at 5.3% .
· International Reserves: Rebuilt significantly from approximately one month of import coverage to more than four months, with reserves reaching US$11.9 billion by the end of 2025 .
· Economic Growth: Recorded 6% real growth in 2025 and 6.4% in the first quarter of 2026, with the expansion described as broad-based across all sectors .
· Debt Reduction: Public debt ratio declined sharply to approximately 45% of GDP, down from over 85% in 2022 .
Dr Alter also noted that debt restructuring and structural reforms under the programme played a pivotal role in restoring macroeconomic stability. “Debt restructuring has been one of the key pillars, and structural reforms. Those helped a lot with macroeconomic stability,” he said.
The Gold Factor: A Double-Edged Sword
The IMF Resident Representative acknowledged that the stronger-than-expected performance was driven significantly by higher gold prices, which boosted exports and strengthened Ghana’s current account position. He noted that gold exports now account for about 60% of Ghana’s total export earnings, contributing to stronger foreign exchange inflows and faster reserve accumulation .
However, this dependence on gold has raised concerns. The IMF’s 2026 Article IV Consultation report, released after the programme’s conclusion, warned that Ghana’s growing reliance on gold presents a significant downside risk to long-term economic resilience .
By July 2026, gold accounted for approximately 68.3% of Ghana’s total export earnings, compared with 12.5% for cocoa, 9.4% for crude oil, and 9.8% for non-traditional exports . In the first half of 2026, gold alone generated about US18.2 billion .
“The cedi’s sharp appreciation since 2025, while reflecting strong gold-driven external inflows, risks eroding competitiveness in the non-extractive export sector and complicating efforts to diversify the export base—underscoring the risks of Ghana’s increased reliance on gold,” the IMF report stated .
Conclusion of the ECF Programme
Dr Alter’s comments come after the IMF Executive Board approved the sixth and final review of Ghana’s US371 million . The approval marked the formal conclusion of the three-year programme, bringing total disbursements to the full US$3 billion .
“Ghana’s performance under the program has been broadly satisfactory. Since the program’s approval, substantial gains have been achieved in macroeconomic stabilization and debt sustainability, including a sharp decline in inflation and a near doubling of reserves by 2025,” the IMF said in a press release .
Transition to the Policy Coordination Instrument
With the ECF concluded, Ghana has transitioned to a 36-month non-financing Policy Coordination Instrument (PCI), which provides a framework for continued policy monitoring without financial support .
Finance Minister Dr Cassiel Ato Forson explained that the PCI is anchored on six broad pillars:
- Sustaining growth-friendly fiscal adjustment
- Safeguarding debt sustainability
- Strengthening fiscal transparency and governance
- Enhancing the monetary and exchange rate policy framework
- Reinforcing financial sector stability
- Supporting economic diversification and inclusive growth
“The PCI will enable us to continue leveraging the IMF’s regular policy assessments and expertise as a signal to investors, thereby certifying the credibility of our stewardship and further strengthening our credit rating,” Dr Forson stated .
Cautious Monetary Policy Advised
The IMF has also urged the Bank of Ghana to proceed cautiously with further policy rate cuts, citing potential second-round effects from the Middle East conflict on energy and fertiliser prices, fiscal relaxation under the PCI, and persistent risks from exchange rate pass-through .
After cutting the policy rate by 400 basis points to 14% in March 2026 and holding it steady in May, the BoG is considered to be near the end of its easing cycle, with the ex-ante real policy rate broadly consistent with a neutral stance .
Forward Outlook
As Ghana consolidates its gains, the IMF emphasises that sustaining the recovery will require continued reforms beyond fiscal consolidation. The Fund has urged the government to deepen domestic revenue mobilisation, complete reforms in the energy and cocoa sectors, improve the business environment, and accelerate investment in agriculture, manufacturing, and other productive sectors .
“Building a broader and more diversified economic base remains the best safeguard against future external shocks,” the IMF report concluded .
Dr Alter’s assessment signals confidence in Ghana’s economic trajectory, but the warnings about gold dependence underscore the challenges that lie ahead as the country moves beyond the bailout programme.
