Ghana’s trade surplus narrowed sharply to US4.3 billion (GH¢46.1 billion) recorded in the first quarter, as a surge in imports outweighed modest export performance, according to the Ghana Statistical Service (GSS) Quarterly Trade Report released on October 2.
Total merchandise trade for the April–June period reached GH¢203.2 billion, comprising exports of GH¢108.5 billion (US8.3 billion). While exports declined marginally by 1.6%, imports jumped 47.5% quarter-on-quarter, driving the contraction.
Gold Dominance Deepens
Gold bullion remained the cornerstone of Ghana’s export earnings, generating GH¢78.4 billion and accounting for 72.3% of total exports—up from 57.7% in Q1 2026. Crude petroleum followed with GH¢11.6 billion (10.7%), while the top five export products collectively represented 89% of total export revenue.
The concentration of Ghana’s export basket has intensified despite repeated policy commitments to diversification. The GSS noted that the headline surplus was largely sustained by elevated gold prices rather than volume growth or a broader export base.
Import Prices and Fuel Costs Escalate
Import prices rose 22.7% between Q1 and Q2 2026—more than five times the 4.0% increase in export prices over the same period. Fuel was the primary driver, with fuel prices surging 54.1% quarter-on-quarter.
Mineral fuels and oils accounted for approximately 30% of the import bill, with gas oil (diesel) emerging as the single largest imported product at GH¢12.2 billion. On a year-on-year basis, import prices increased 10.5%, marking the first annual rise after four consecutive quarters of decline.
Trade Partners and Regional Dynamics
China retained its position as Ghana’s largest source of imports at GH¢20.4 billion, though its share fell from 29.7% to 21.5%. South Africa moved into second place with GH¢11.8 billion in exports to Ghana.
The United Arab Emirates emerged as Ghana’s largest export destination, purchasing GH¢32.7 billion worth of goods—30.2% of total exports. The UAE and India together absorbed 46.4% of Ghana’s exports, while the top five destinations accounted for 76.2%, up from 65.7% in Q1.
Trade with West Africa reached a record US250 million. Notably, West African exports were far more diversified than Ghana’s global export basket: the top five products accounted for just 39.4% of exports to the region, compared with 89% globally. Manufactured goods including baby nappies, tiles, plastics, and steel products featured prominently, underscoring the potential role of regional markets in supporting non-traditional exports.
The Real Trade Picture
When price effects are removed and trade is measured at constant Q1 2021 prices, the picture shifts dramatically. Real exports stood at GH¢26.6 billion against real imports of GH¢41.2 billion, producing a real trade deficit of GH¢14.6 billion—more than double the GH¢6.2 billion real deficit in Q1 2026.
This indicates that Ghana imported more goods by volume than it exported during the quarter, with the nominal surplus entirely attributable to favourable gold export prices rather than genuine trade competitiveness.
Reserve Pressure and Cedi Implications
The shrinking surplus compounds existing pressures on Ghana’s external buffers. Gross International Reserves declined by US14.16 billion to US11.87 billion to US$10.8 billion over the same period.
Despite strong export earnings—gold exports alone rose from US12.50 billion in the first half of 2026—a significant portion of foreign exchange receipts was absorbed by rising import payments and external obligations. The cedi has depreciated approximately 9.2% since the start of 2026, though it remains 43% stronger than its November 2024 low of GH¢16.47 to the dollar.
Expert Concerns
The Government Statistician, Dr. Alhassan Iddrisu, emphasised in the report’s preface that while high world prices can flatter headline figures, “lasting strength comes from making and selling more of what the world wants”.
Economists have repeatedly warned that Ghana’s heavy dependence on gold exports exposes the economy to commodity price volatility, affecting the exchange rate, inflation, fiscal revenues, and financial sector stability. The GSS report underscored the need for export diversification, increased local value addition, and stronger utilisation of African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) opportunities to build a more resilient trading economy.
The Q2 2026 figures present a paradox: Ghana earned record export revenues driven by gold, yet its real trade position deteriorated and reserves fell. The narrowing surplus signals that without structural diversification and stronger domestic production capacity, Ghana’s external position will remain vulnerable to commodity price cycles and import-driven shocks.
