Ghana’s secondary bond market activity slowed sharply last week, with turnover declining 28.56% week-on-week to GH¢1.56 billion, as investors positioned themselves for the Ghana Cocoa Board’s (COCOBOD) landmark GH¢16.3 billion domestic issuance programme.
Trading remained heavily concentrated in the 2031-2034 maturity segment, which accounted for 71.30% of total turnover at an average yield of 13.93%. The 2027-2030 segment contributed 23.05% at an average yield of 12.37%, while post-2035 maturities represented 5.65% of turnover at an average yield of 15.34%, according to Databank Research.
The newly issued September 2030 bond recorded GH¢5.45 million in turnover at a weighted-average yield of 11.85%, a modest performance compared to the GH¢320.99 million it attracted in mid-September when it first began trading on the secondary market.
A Market in Transition
The decline marks a significant pullback from the previous week’s rebound, when turnover nearly doubled by 94.65% to GH¢4.13 billion as investor activity returned strongly across key maturity segments. The week before that, turnover had collapsed by 68.28% to GH¢2.12 billion, illustrating the volatility that has characterised Ghana’s fixed income market in recent months.
The GH¢1.56 billion turnover figure mirrors activity recorded in July 2026, when the market also saw a 71.11% week-on-week decline to GH¢1.56 billion. The pattern underscores the market’s sensitivity to shifting liquidity conditions, coupon settlement cycles, and competing issuance programmes.
Databank Research attributed the recent week’s softer activity partly to the ex-coupon period, as investors deferred reinvestment pending coupon settlement. “Looking ahead, we expect secondary-market activity to remain resilient, supported by spillover of unmet T-bill demand,” the research firm noted in its earlier outlook.
COCOBOD’s Landmark Issuance Looms Large
The primary driver of the week’s slowdown appears to be the imminent COCOBOD issuance, which has captured investor attention. Databank Research expects the secondary bond activity to improve modestly this week, supported by month-end portfolio rebalancing by fund managers. “However, we expect the upside to turnover to be capped as investors redirect some liquidity toward COCOBOD’s GH¢16.3bn issuance programme, with book building running from 28-29 September,” the firm added.
The cocoa sector issuance is being managed through Cocoa Capital PLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of COCOBOD, and represents a major shift in how Ghana finances its cocoa purchases. The offer comprises GH¢2.3 billion of 5-year senior unsecured amortising bonds and GH¢14.0 billion of 270-day commercial paper, with allotment scheduled for 30 September and issuance on 1 October 2026.
Of the aggregate financing target, GH¢14 billion will be issued via commercial paper to fund short-term liquidity requirements for the 2026/27 crop season cocoa purchases, while the remaining GH¢2.3 billion will be raised through mid-to-long-term bond issuances to restructure existing COCOBOD legacy debt.
The programme represents a historic departure from COCOBOD’s traditional reliance on offshore syndicated loans, which had been the primary financing model for cocoa purchases for nearly three decades. The collapse of that model amid Ghana’s broader debt crisis forced the cocoa regulator to turn to the domestic capital market.
Repayment obligations under the programme will be supported by receivables from selected executed cocoa forward sales contracts assigned to Cocoa Capital PLC. Proceeds from these contracts will flow through designated ring-fenced accounts held with appointed account banks and will be applied in accordance with the programme’s payment waterfall.
Cocoa Capital PLC has secured approval from the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to raise funds through the domestic debt capital market. The bookrunners for the programme are Absa Bank Ghana Ltd, Cal Bank PLC, Fincap Securities Ltd, GCB Bank PLC, One Africa Securities Ltd and Stanbic Bank Ghana Ltd.
Background: A Market Rebuilding After Crisis
Ghana’s secondary bond market has been on a long road to recovery following the December 2022 domestic debt exchange programme (DDEP), which restructured approximately GH¢137 billion of domestic notes and bonds. The DDEP, a critical component of Ghana’s effort to restore debt sustainability, resulted in the exchange of GH¢82.9 billion (US$7.2 billion) in its first phase, or 85% of eligible bonds.
The restructuring fundamentally reshaped the bond market’s composition, creating new instruments maturing in 2027, 2029, 2032 and 2037. Trading activity has since been dominated by these restructured securities, with the 2031-2034 segment emerging as the most actively traded portion of the curve.
The market’s recovery has been aided by a broader macroeconomic stabilisation. Inflation fell from a peak of 54.1% in December 2022 to 5% in August 2026, enabling the Bank of Ghana to cut its policy rate from 28% in June 2025 to 14% by mid-2026. Treasury bill rates have fallen in tandem, with the 91-day bill now yielding 4.69% and the 364-day bill at 9.83%.
The government’s return to longer-term domestic borrowing in 2026, after a three-year ban on medium- and long-term bond issuance, has also begun to lengthen the maturity profile of Ghana’s local currency debt. A new four-year Treasury bond issued in September attracted GH¢4.46 billion in bids, with the government accepting GH¢3.15 billion.
Corporate Bonds and Market Diversification
The market has also seen the emergence of corporate bond issuance, with Petrosol Platinum Energy PLC successfully issuing two sets of corporate bonds on the Ghana Fixed Income Market (GFIM) in August 2026. Several new corporate bonds are set for market debut, signalling a gradual broadening of the issuer base beyond sovereign and quasi-sovereign entities.
The GFIM, which recorded GH¢6.94 billion in trading in the week ended September 25, 2026 — a 20.5% increase — has become the primary platform for secondary trading of fixed income securities. The market operates through Depository Participants, including Primary Dealers, providing liquidity and price discovery for government and corporate bonds.
Outlook
The coming weeks will be critical for Ghana’s fixed income market as it absorbs the COCOBOD issuance while managing competing demands on liquidity. The cocoa notes programme, if successful, could establish a new template for domestic financing of key sectors and reduce reliance on offshore borrowing.
However, the market faces headwinds from the Middle East conflict, which has pushed up global fuel prices and raised inflationary pressures. The Bank of Ghana has maintained its policy rate at 14%, citing resilient domestic economic activity and a broadly balanced outlook for inflation and growth, but the external environment remains uncertain.
For now, investors appear to be in a holding pattern, awaiting the pricing of the cocoa notes and the direction of monetary policy in the final quarter of 2026. The secondary market’s performance in the coming weeks will offer a key signal of whether Ghana’s fixed income market can sustain its post-crisis recovery momentum.
