Ghanaian motorists will see a split in fuel prices at the pumps from Sunday, November 1, with petrol set to decline slightly while diesel costs climb, according to the latest forecast from the Chamber of Petroleum Consumers (COPEC).
In its pricing outlook for the first November window, COPEC projected that petrol will sell at an average of GH¢16.72 per litre, down 1.71% from the current average of GH¢17.02. Diesel, by contrast, is expected to rise 4.07% to an average of GH¢19.15 per litre, up from GH¢18.40. Liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) is expected to remain broadly stable at the pumps.
Divergent International Trends Drive Split Outlook
The opposing price movements reflect divergent trends in international markets for the two refined products. COPEC data showed the free-on-board (FOB) price of petrol fell 4.45% to $1,199.16 per metric tonne, while diesel FOB prices rose 2.71% to $1,453.07 per metric tonne.
The outlook is further shaped by the cedi, which appreciated approximately 0.68% against the US dollar, with the average interbank rate improving from GH¢11.8222 to GH¢11.7411. A stronger local currency typically helps dampen the cost of dollar-denominated imports.
LPG Stability Masks Global Price Surge
Despite a significant jump in the international FOB price of LPG—from $839.50 to $1,003.18 per metric tonne—COPEC projects that pump prices for the cooking fuel will remain broadly unchanged during the window. The chamber estimates LPG will retail between GH¢17.54 and GH¢19.38 per kilogramme.
Price Floors and Government Interventions
The COPEC projections align with recent regulatory adjustments by the National Petroleum Authority (NPA). For the November 1–15 pricing window, the NPA reduced the petrol price floor from GH¢16.09 to GH¢15.39 per litre and the LPG floor from GH¢13.89 to GH¢13.73 per kilogramme. Conversely, the diesel price floor was raised from GH¢17.09 to GH¢17.41 per litre.
Final pump prices will ultimately depend on the margins applied by individual Oil Marketing Companies (OMCs). COPEC projected a range of GH¢15.89 to GH¢17.57 per litre for petrol and GH¢18.19 to GH¢20.11 for diesel.
The diesel increase comes despite ongoing government efforts to cushion consumers. The government has maintained a GH¢2-per-litre relief on diesel for October and November, partially funded through the suspension of the GH¢1 D-Levy. COPEC appealed to OMCs to moderate their margins to limit the impact on households and businesses.
Background: Inflation and Global Pressures
The fuel price adjustments occur against a backdrop of rising domestic inflation. Ghana’s inflation rate ticked up to 5.2% in September 2026 from 5.0% in August, driven partly by transport costs.
Internationally, global crude oil benchmarks remain elevated, with Brent crude trading above $110 per barrel in late October due to geopolitical tensions, continuing to exert upward pressure on refined product prices. COPEC noted that while the cedi’s stability has provided some relief, volatility in global petroleum markets remains the primary driver of local pump prices.
