Ghana’s growing reliance on fuel imports is putting increasing pressure on the country’s trade balance, with fuel and mineral products accounting for about 30% of total imports in the second quarter of 2026, according to the Ghana Statistical Service (GSS). Diesel (gas oil) was the country’s largest single import during the period, valued at GH¢12.2 billion, while super petrol imports amounted to another GH¢8 billion. The development contributed to a sharp increase in Ghana’s import bill, which rose by 47.5% in the second quarter compared with the first quarter.
Trade Surplus Narrows Sharply
The GSS Quarterly Trade Statistics Newsletter shows that Ghana recorded a trade surplus of GH¢13.8 billion (US9.6 billion) and imports valued at GH¢94.7 billion (US4.3 billion in the first quarter to US$1.3 billion in the second quarter.
Fuel Costs Drive Import Surge
Import prices increased by 22.7% during the quarter, more than five times the 4.0% increase in export prices, with fuel import prices alone surging by 54.1%. The GSS noted that fuel imports remain particularly vulnerable to movements in international prices. Ghana’s downstream petroleum sector consumed 7.45 billion litres of petroleum products domestically in 2025, a 15.3% year-on-year increase, with imports surging by nearly 37% while domestic refining accounted for only about 13% of national demand. The National Petroleum Authority (NPA) has disclosed that only 24% of Ghana’s fuel supply comes from local production. Ghana currently consumes between 120,000 and 140,000 barrels of petroleum products daily.
The country’s refining capacity remains a key structural weakness. In 2025, local refining production accounted for just 6% of petroleum product supply, down from 9% in 2024. The Tema Oil Refinery has a daily processing capacity of 28,000 barrels, with plans to increase to 45,000 barrels, while the Sentuo Oil Refinery processes about 40,000 barrels per day. COMAC has warned that Ghana’s current storage capacity is insufficient, noting that doubling it would provide at least a month’s supply buffer. The Chamber has called for increased investment in domestic refineries and expanded strategic storage infrastructure.
The Middle East crisis has compounded these challenges. Standard Bank slashed its 2026 current account surplus projection for Ghana by approximately US65 per barrel, petroleum imports account for approximately 29% of total goods imports, a proportion that rises sharply at higher price levels like US$90–95 per barrel. The National Petroleum Authority raised mandatory price floors for the April 1–15 pricing window, lifting petrol by about 15% to GH¢13.30 per litre and diesel by roughly 19% to GH¢17.10 per litre.
Gold Supports Export Earnings
The GSS cautioned that Ghana’s headline trade surplus remains heavily supported by high export prices, particularly gold, rather than broad-based growth in export volumes. Gold bullion generated GH¢78.4 billion, accounting for 72.3% of total export earnings in the second quarter, up from 57.7% in the first quarter. Crude petroleum was second at GH¢11.6 billion (10.7%), followed by cocoa products. Together, the top five export products accounted for 89.0% of all exports.
This means close to three of every four cedis Ghana earned from exports came from gold — gold earned almost seven times as much as crude oil. The United Arab Emirates emerged as the country’s largest export destination, purchasing GH¢32.7 billion worth of goods, equivalent to 30.2% of exports. Together, the UAE and India accounted for 46.4% of Ghana’s exports, while the top five destinations took 76.2%, up from 65.7% in the first quarter.
Ghana’s export market concentration has increased significantly. In Africa, South Africa was Ghana’s biggest buyer and supplier, taking 56.5% of Ghana’s exports to Africa, almost all of it gold (99.8%). The top five African destinations took 81.5% of Ghana’s exports to the continent. This leaves the country exposed to external price shocks and highlights the vulnerability created by a narrow export base.
Bank of Ghana data shows that the value of gold exports rose by 49.0% to US8.39 billion in 2025, driven by a 49.7% increase in the average realised price to US22.4 billion as of August 2026, more than double the US3.2 billion to US$4.7 billion over the same period.
Real Trade Deficit Revealed
When price changes are removed and trade is measured at constant Q1 2021 prices, Ghana actually recorded a real trade deficit of GH¢14.6 billion in the second quarter of 2026, compared with a real deficit of GH¢6.2 billion in the first quarter. Real exports stood at GH¢26.6 billion while real imports reached GH¢41.2 billion, indicating that the country imported more goods by volume than it exported. This means Ghana’s positive nominal balance is driven almost entirely by favourable export prices rather than any improvement in the volume of goods traded.
The Government Statistician, Dr. Alhassan Iddrisu, had flagged this pattern in the first quarter as well. “When we adjust for price effect using the unit value index, the picture changes from a nominal surplus to a real trade deficit, reminding us that higher prices rather than higher export volumes explain much of the strong trade performance,” he said.
Regional Trade Shifts into Deficit
Trade with Africa also shifted into deficit during the quarter. Ghana imported GH¢23.6 billion worth of goods from the continent while exporting GH¢19.2 billion, resulting in a GH¢4.4 billion deficit, primarily attributed to imports of pump parts from South Africa valued at GH¢10 billion. The report noted that West Africa remained Ghana’s most diversified export market, with manufactured products such as baby napkins, tiles, plastics and steel products featuring prominently. Regional trade reached a record US$1.33 billion during the quarter, although Ghana recorded its first trade deficit with West Africa, with exports to the region showing far less concentration (top five exports made up just 39.4% of sales) compared to Ghana’s global trade (89.0%).
China remained Ghana’s largest source of imports at GH¢20.4 billion, although its share declined from 29.7% to 21.5%. South Africa moved into second place with imports valued at GH¢11.8 billion.
Calls for Export Diversification
The GSS is calling for measures to diversify Ghana’s exports, increase local processing and value addition, and expand access to international markets. It is also recommending stronger implementation of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), improved transport and border infrastructure, and better access to financing for exporters.
According to the GSS, reducing dependence on a narrow range of exports while strengthening domestic production and processing will be critical to building a more resilient trade position and reducing Ghana’s exposure to global price movements. Dr. Iddrisu said government must continue promoting export diversification and value addition, while businesses invest in processing, innovation and competitiveness. He also encouraged Ghanaian consumers to support locally produced goods as part of efforts to create jobs and strengthen the domestic economy.
“Businesses should invest in processing, innovation, and competitiveness, and take advantage of the AfCFTA, while households should recognise that buying quality Ghanaian products supports jobs and strengthens our economy,” he said.
Policy Response and Import Substitution
The government has launched several initiatives aimed at reducing import dependence. In June 2026, the Minister for Food and Agriculture, Eric Opoku, announced a new policy linking rice import permits to investments in domestic rice production. Ghana currently consumes about 1.7 million tonnes of rice annually but produces only about 960,000 tonnes, leaving a deficit of roughly 751,000 tonnes that costs the country an estimated US$320 million annually in imports.
President Mahama has also announced that the government is amending the Public Procurement Act to compel state institutions to prioritise locally manufactured products licensed by the Ghana Standards Authority. “This company produces it, this is their recommended price, you must go and buy this product instead of buying an imported product,” he said. Cabinet has approved four sector policies to power the Tema Integrated Industrial Park — covering textiles and garments, pharmaceuticals, automotive components, and agribusiness — aimed at driving value addition and import substitution.
On the petroleum front, the government has moved to address the fuel import burden. In 2026, the first cargo of Jubilee crude was sold to Sentuo Oil Refinery for local refining, marking a shift toward domestic processing. President Mahama has also directed the Minister for Energy to consider paying for Ghana’s locally produced crude oil in cedis instead of dollars, a move that would reduce foreign exchange pressure on the import bill.
Broader Economic Context
The narrowing trade surplus comes amid broader economic headwinds. Standard Bank has warned that Ghana’s forex market faces significant pressure, with a dollar backlog of approximately US$1 billion. The cedi weakened to trade around GH¢11.65–11.70 per dollar in the spot market, reflecting the tight supply of hard currency.
The Bank of Ghana is transitioning from its current foreign exchange auction system to a new 15-day funded forward mechanism managed by the Gold Board, aiming to channel liquidity from artisanal miners directly into the broader market. The central bank surprised markets with a 150 basis point rate cut in the early weeks of the Middle East crisis, lowering the monetary policy rate to 14%. However, Standard Bank expects the central bank to pause further cuts amid rising inflation pressures from elevated fuel and food prices.
Despite the narrowing surplus, Ghana’s international reserves have fluctuated. Reserves fell from US11.04 billion in August 2026, before recovering marginally to US$12.02 billion. Analysts are also watching developments in global interest rates, with the recent US Federal Reserve decision to raise rates potentially putting pressure on gold prices in the coming months. A sustained decline in gold prices could significantly affect one of the major drivers of Ghana’s export earnings.
The Path Ahead
The GSS report underscores a fundamental vulnerability in Ghana’s trade position: a persistent reliance on imported fuel and a narrow export base dominated by gold. While high gold prices have flattered the headline trade surplus, the underlying data reveals that Ghana is importing more goods by volume than it exports. The government’s import substitution agenda, regional trade integration under AfCFTA, and efforts to boost local refining capacity represent critical steps toward building a more resilient trade position. However, as the GSS has cautioned, reducing dependence on a narrow range of exports while strengthening domestic production and processing will be essential to insulating Ghana’s economy from the persistent volatility of global commodity and energy markets.
