Fitch Ratings has revised the outlook for nine Nigerian banks and two bank holding companies from Stable to Positive, following a similar action on the country’s sovereign rating earlier this month. The Long-Term Issuer Default Ratings (IDRs) of the affected institutions were affirmed at ‘B’ .
The institutions affected include Access Bank Plc, Zenith Bank Plc, First HoldCo Plc (FHC), First Bank of Nigeria Ltd (FBN), United Bank for Africa Plc (UBA), Guaranty Trust Holding Company Plc (GTCO), Guaranty Trust Bank Limited (GTB), Fidelity Bank PLC, First City Monument Bank Limited (FCMB), Wema Bank PLC, and Bank of Industry Limited (BOI) .
Sovereign Action Drives Bank Outlooks
The rating action follows Fitch’s decision on October 9, 2026, to revise Nigeria’s own Long-Term IDR outlook to Positive from Stable. The agency cited ongoing reforms to the policy framework and increased confidence that reform momentum will not be disrupted by upcoming elections, with the presidential vote scheduled for January 2027 .
For the commercial banks, Fitch stated that the outlook revisions reflect its view that the sovereign’s credit profile and Nigeria’s operating environment “may become less of a constraint on the issuers’ standalone creditworthiness” . The creditworthiness of Nigerian lenders remains closely tied to the sovereign due to their substantial holdings of government securities and cash reserves at the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN). According to Fitch, these exposures represented between 23% and 45% of the banks’ total assets at the end of 2025 .
Capital Restoration Supports Specific Institutions
The outlook revision for First HoldCo and First Bank of Nigeria was additionally supported by the institutions having restored compliance with the total capital adequacy ratio (CAR) requirement. FBN had breached its minimum bank-solo CAR requirement of 15% at the end of 2025 due to a sharp increase in impaired loans, but restored compliance by the end of the first half of 2026, with the ratio rising to 16.7% .
BOI’s outlook revision reflects Fitch’s assessment that the government’s ability to provide support to the policy bank may improve .
Improving Operating Environment
Fitch noted that Nigeria’s operating environment is improving, pointing to a roughly 7% appreciation of the naira in the first nine months of 2026 and continued reserve accumulation by the CBN. Inflation, which rose at the onset of the Iran conflict, eased to 15.4% in August and is expected to decline further, supporting a continued easing of monetary policy. Fitch forecasts real GDP growth of 4.3% in 2026, up from 4% in 2025 .
The agency also acknowledged the sector’s resilience despite what it described as “burdensome regulations,” particularly the 45% cash reserve ratio requirement for commercial banks. Significant capital raisings to meet new paid-in capital requirements effective from the end of the first quarter of 2026 have provided lenders with additional capacity to absorb risks and pursue loan growth, Fitch added .
Ratings and Constraints Unchanged
Despite the improved outlook, Fitch affirmed the National Ratings of all issuers and the Government Support Ratings (GSRs) of the eight commercial banks and two bank holding companies. The agency noted that the Viability Ratings (VRs) of Zenith Bank, GTCO, and GTB remain one notch below their implied levels due to operating environment and sovereign rating constraints. Access Bank’s VR is similarly constrained by capitalisation and leverage considerations .
Fitch also flagged that Access Bank has breached a regulatory limit on its investments in foreign subsidiaries, set at 10% of shareholders’ funds, and its bank-solo CAR of 17.4% at the end of the first quarter of 2026 provides only a moderate buffer over the 15% minimum requirement. The agency expects the bank to complete corrective measures by the end of the first quarter of 2027 .
The outlook revision signals the potential for future rating improvements rather than an immediate upgrade. Fitch indicated that sustained macroeconomic stability, continued reform implementation, and the banks’ ability to maintain adequate capital buffers while managing asset quality risks will be key to translating the positive outlook into actual rating upgrades .
