Analysts are projecting that the Ghana cedi will trade within a range of GH¢10.95 to GH¢11.76 against the US dollar by the end of September, supported by expectations of increased foreign exchange intervention from the Bank of Ghana as seasonal import demand builds ahead of the festive season .
The forecast follows a mixed performance in August, during which the local currency demonstrated resilience by largely remaining anchored near the GH¢11.00 level against the dollar, despite a modest correction from its strong mid-month performance .
August Performance: A Tale of Two Markets
The cedi showcased its strongest position in the second week of August when the dollar traded at approximately GH¢10.95, marking a significant appreciation from earlier levels . However, the currency ended the month on a slightly weaker note.
By the final trading day of August, the cedi’s year-to-date loss had narrowed to an average of 6.89 percent, a meaningful improvement from the 10.04 percent depreciation recorded at the end of July .
On the interbank market, the currency depreciated across major pairs during the two-week review period, closing at GH¢11.25 to the dollar, GH¢15.23 to the pound sterling, and GH¢13.04 to the euro. Conversely, the retail market told a different story, with the cedi appreciating by 4.33 percent against the dollar and 0.47 percent against the pound, closing at GH¢11.55 and GH¢15.88 respectively .
Central Bank Intervention A Critical Stabilizer
Analysts credited much of the cedi’s relative stability during August to the active support of the central bank. The Bank of Ghana is estimated to have sold approximately US1 billion foreign exchange intermediation programme .
The central bank’s intervention helped curb speculative positioning, ease broader market pressures, and narrow the cedi’s year-to-date depreciation . This support is part of a more substantial effort, with market data indicating that the Bank of Ghana has sold over US$8 billion into the foreign exchange market between January and July 2026 to improve liquidity and meet demand .
Indeed, Ghana’s international reserves stood at US$12.9 billion at the end of June 2026, equivalent to about five months of import cover, providing a strong buffer against external shocks .
Strong Fundamentals and a Positive Economic Outlook
The cedi’s performance is also supported by a broader improvement in Ghana’s macroeconomic fundamentals. The African Development Bank reports that the economy grew by 5.8 percent in 2025, with inflation falling to 14.6 percent and the fiscal deficit narrowing to 2.4 percent of GDP . The IMF also notes that the country’s ECF-supported program has delivered substantial stabilization gains, including improved confidence in the cedi .
Looking Ahead to September
Looking toward the remainder of the year, analysts at Databank expect the Bank of Ghana to modestly increase its foreign exchange support beyond the US$1 billion mark as businesses ramp up import purchases in preparation for the festive season . This increased demand for dollars to fund imports such as textiles, food items, and other goods associated with seasonal celebrations will put pressure on the currency .
The scale of that intervention will be a key factor in determining whether the cedi holds closer to the lower end of the projected GH¢10.95 to GH¢11.76 trading band.
For households and businesses, the relative stability of the cedi in recent weeks offers some reprieve from the volatility that characterized much of the first half of the year. However, market watchers remain cautious, noting that the currency’s trajectory is closely tied to the central bank’s continued efforts to manage liquidity and the broader global economic environment.
