The Ghanaian government raised GH¢3.9 billion in its latest Treasury bill auction, exceeding its target by approximately 12% as investors showed renewed appetite for short-term government securities, even as the yield curve diverged between shorter and longer maturities.
The Treasury had set a target of GH¢3.8 billion for the auction, part of its plan to raise GH¢15.3 billion in the final quarter of 2026 . Total bids tendered reached GH¢4.27 billion, with the government accepting GH¢3.39 billion—though Joy Business reported the accepted amount as GH¢3.9 billion . The discrepancy in reported acceptance figures could not be immediately reconciled.
91-Day Bill Dominates Demand
The 91-day instrument continued to attract the bulk of investor interest, drawing GH¢2.86 billion in bids—roughly 67% of total tenders—of which GH¢2.55 billion was accepted . The preference for the shortest tenor reflects investors’ desire for liquidity amid lingering uncertainty over the medium-term inflation path and the government’s broader fiscal trajectory.
The 182-day bill received GH¢533.28 million in bids, with GH¢420.66 million accepted. The 364-day bill attracted GH¢873.69 million in tenders, but the Treasury accepted only GH¢420.24 million—less than half—signalling a selective approach to longer-dated borrowing and a reluctance to lock in higher costs at the long end of the curve .
Yield Curve Diverges
The auction produced a split in pricing. The yield on the 91-day bill declined by one basis point to 4.61%, while the 182-day rate eased to 6.27% from 6.31% the previous week . The movement extends a broader downward trend in short-term rates that has characterised the market since mid-year, when the 91-day yield stood at 4.64% .
The 364-day bill bucked the trend, with its yield rising four basis points to 9.75% . The increase suggests investors are demanding a higher premium to hold Ghanaian government paper beyond the six-month horizon, even as near-term inflation has moderated.
Ghana’s inflation rate stood at 5.2% in September 2026, up from 5.0% in August but significantly below the 9.4% recorded a year earlier . The Bank of Ghana has held its policy rate at 14% since September, maintaining a tight monetary stance even as market-determined T-bill rates have fallen well below the policy rate .
Funding Pressure and Market Context
The auction result comes as the government balances heavy short-term financing needs against the goal of extending the maturity profile of its domestic debt. The Treasury’s reliance on the 91-day and 182-day instruments means a substantial portion of the borrowed funds must be rolled over within three to six months, keeping refinancing risk elevated.
Demand for T-bills has fluctuated week to week. Earlier this month, the government accepted GH¢4.41 billion against a target of GH¢2.87 billion, an oversubscription of 53.5% . The following week, it fell short, raising GH¢3.48 billion against a GH¢5.02 billion target despite receiving sufficient bids—a sign that the Treasury is willing to reject expensive offers rather than accept whatever the market tenders .
The latest auction’s 12% oversubscription, while positive for the government’s cash position, is more modest than the surge seen earlier in October. The decline in total bids from GH¢5.17 billion in the prior week to GH¢4.27 billion suggests demand, while adequate, is not accelerating .
For now, the combination of falling short-term yields and a well-subscribed auction offers the government some breathing room on borrowing costs. Whether that trend holds will depend on inflation’s next move and the Treasury’s appetite for longer-dated issuance at rates it considers sustainable.
