Ghanaian motorists and businesses are bracing for a significant jump in fuel costs from Thursday, October 1, 2026, after the Chamber of Petroleum Consumers (COPEC) projected a 22.91% increase in diesel prices and a 5.21% rise in petrol for the first pricing window of October.
In a statement issued on Tuesday, September 29, and signed by Executive Secretary Duncan Amoah, COPEC said the expected increases are being driven by a sharp rise in international petroleum prices and a marginal depreciation of the Ghana cedi against the US dollar.
The Numbers at the Pump
COPEC projects the average retail price of petrol to increase from GH¢16.90 to GH¢17.78 per litre, while diesel is expected to rise from GH¢18.24 to GH¢22.42 per litre—a jump of more than GH¢4 per litre that will hit transport operators and businesses hard.
The Chamber also expects Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) to increase to GH¢15.68 per kilogramme, following a 9.10% rise in its international Free on Board (FOB) price.
For petrol, COPEC said the FOB price increased by 4.26%, from $1,251.07 to $1,304.39 per metric tonne. It expects petrol to sell between GH¢16.89 and GH¢18.67 per litre, within a ±5% range of its projection. Diesel’s FOB price rose from $1,404.73 to $1,524.22 per metric tonne, representing an 8.51% increase, with pump prices projected to range between GH¢19.40 and GH¢21.44 per litre.
Crude Oil and Cedi Under Pressure
According to COPEC, the global crude oil price increased significantly from $103.07 to $124 per barrel during the pricing window. Over the same period, the cedi depreciated by about 1.20% against the US dollar, moving from an average interbank rate of GH¢11.4830 to GH¢11.6211.
The cedi’s slide has been a persistent concern. In the interbank market, the local currency weakened by 1.39% to GH¢11.62 to a US dollar, while it gained 0.70% and 0.47% against the pound and euro to GH¢15.40 and GH¢13.24, respectively. Fitch Solutions has estimated an 8% depreciation of the cedi to the dollar by the end of 2026, trading at GH¢11.70 to the US dollar on the interbank market.
Transport Fares and the Cost-of-Living Squeeze
The projected fuel price hikes come amid a standoff over public transport fares. In September, the Ghana Private Road Transport Union (GPRTU) and the Ghana Road Transport Coordinating Council (GRTCC) said no decision had been taken to increase fares as talks continued with the Ministry of Transport over a proposed fare review for the 2026 fare window.
However, the GPRTU had warned that a possible 30% increase remained on the table if projected fuel price hikes took effect. “Already, we are having a percentage proposal of transport fare increments on the table of the Transport Ministry,” a union spokesperson said.
The government had previously intervened in April 2026, when it announced a temporary measure to absorb GH¢2.00 per litre on diesel and GH¢0.36 per litre on petrol to cushion consumers against surging global prices. The subsidy was estimated to cost the state over GH¢500 million a month. It is unclear whether any portion of that intervention remains in place for the October pricing window.
COPEC Appeals to OMCs and Government
COPEC appealed to Oil Marketing Companies (OMCs) to absorb part of the anticipated increases by shelving some of their margins to reduce the burden on consumers.
The Chamber also commended the government for the continuous supply of crude oil to local refineries and called for an accelerated expansion of the Tema Oil Refinery (TOR). It urged the government to increase TOR’s refining capacity from the current 45,000 barrels per day to 100,000 barrels per day, arguing that the expansion would help reduce Ghana’s reliance on imported finished petroleum products.
TOR’s Revival and the Path to 100,000 bpd
The call for TOR’s expansion comes amid a significant turnaround at the state-owned refinery. After being dormant for more than six years, TOR resumed operations in December 2025 following the successful completion of turnaround maintenance on its Crude Distillation Unit. The refinery is currently processing about 28,000 barrels per stream day, while work continues on other units to restore its original capacity of 45,000 barrels per stream day.
President John Dramani Mahama has directed the Ministry of Energy and Green Transition to prepare a comprehensive plan to expand TOR’s capacity to 100,000 barrels per day. Energy Minister Dr. John Abdulai Jinapor said he has prepared a roadmap to achieve this target. TOR has also received its first one-million-barrel shipment of crude oil from Ghana’s Jubilee Field for domestic refining, with the refinery now operating on a 24-hour basis.
“This will enable us to refine more of Ghana’s crude oil locally, meet a greater share of domestic demand, create jobs, add value to our natural resources and strengthen Ghana’s position as a petroleum hub for the sub-region,” Jinapor said.
What It Means for Consumers
For ordinary Ghanaians, the October price hikes will compound an already difficult cost-of-living situation. Higher diesel prices directly increase the cost of transporting goods, which feeds into the prices of food and other essentials. Transport operators are likely to renew their push for fare increases, placing further strain on household budgets.
For businesses, particularly SMEs that rely on diesel for generators and logistics, the 22.91% jump represents a significant increase in operating costs at a time when access to credit remains constrained. The Ghana Association of Banks recently warned that systemic risks in the SME environment continue to limit lending, meaning businesses may struggle to absorb yet another cost shock.
COPEC’s projections are within a ±5% margin of error, and actual pump prices will depend on OMCs’ pricing decisions and any government intervention in the coming days.
