China exported 208,000 tonnes of aluminium flat-rolled products (FRP) to the United States in the first half of 2026, a 278.2% increase from 55,000 tonnes in the same period last year, according to customs data.
The surge was overwhelmingly driven by plates, sheets and strip (HS 7606), which reached 184,000 tonnes in H1 2026, up from 33,000 tonnes a year earlier—a staggering 457.6% increase. Foil exports (HS 7607) grew far more modestly, rising 9.1% to 24,000 tonnes from 22,000 tonnes .
Quarterly Trajectory Shows Acceleration
The plate, sheet and strip category gathered pace as the half progressed. Shipments rose from 86,000 tonnes in Q1 to 98,000 tonnes in Q2, a 14% quarterly increase. Against the 13,000 tonnes exported in Q2 2025, the latest quarterly figure represents a 653.8% jump .
The quarterly breakdown for 2025 illustrates how sudden the reversal has been. Exports of plates, sheets and strip stood at 20,000 tonnes in Q1 2025 and 13,000 tonnes in Q2, before climbing to 23,000 tonnes in Q3 and 41,000 tonnes in Q4. China’s Q2 2026 volume of 98,000 tonnes was more than double the Q4 2025 figure .
The Fire-Related Order Diversion
The principal driver of the extraordinary growth was a supply disruption at a leading North American rolling mill. A fire in the fourth quarter of 2025 knocked out production capacity for can stock and automotive body sheet, forcing US buyers to source from overseas producers—with Chinese mills capturing the bulk of the transferred orders .
That order diversion remained intact through the first half of 2026. By April, US-bound aluminium plate, sheet and strip exports from China had climbed to 34,800 tonnes monthly, up from roughly 15,000 tonnes in October 2025, as the North American mill’s downtime persisted .
Momentum Fading by June
The data suggests the surge may have already peaked. In June 2026, China’s exports of aluminium plate, sheet and strip to the US fell 29.2% month-on-month to 26,100 tonnes, down from 36,900 tonnes in May—the largest pullback among China’s top ten destinations .
The decline coincided with the North American rolling mill resuming production in June. As the affected lines came back online, the order-diversion effect that had inflated Chinese shipments began to fade, and the market entered what analysts described as a correction phase .
Foil: A Different Story
Aluminium foil exports told a quieter story. China shipped 24,000 tonnes of foil to the US in H1 2026, up 9.1% from 22,000 tonnes in H1 2025. The quarterly figures rose from 10,000 tonnes in Q1 to 14,000 tonnes in Q2, a 40% increase, and Q2 2026 was also 40% higher than the 10,000 tonnes exported in Q2 2025 .
The 2025 quarterly pattern for foil—12,000 tonnes in Q1, 10,000 in Q2, 8,300 in Q3 and 9,000 in Q4—shows a steadier, less volatile trajectory than the plate and sheet category .
Tariff Context
The surge occurred against a backdrop of steep US tariffs on Chinese aluminium products. Section 232 measures on aluminium stack on top of Section 301 tariffs and base MFN duties, creating a layered effective rate that varies by HTS code . Despite these barriers, the supply shock from the North American mill fire created a window that Chinese exporters exploited.
Analysts had warned as early as July that the transferred orders would likely be reclaimed once North American production normalised, and the June data confirmed that correction was underway . Whether Chinese exporters can retain any of the market share gained during the disruption—or whether the H1 surge proves to be an anomaly—will become clearer in second-half trade figures.
