Fitch Solutions has sharply raised its forecast for Ghana’s 2026 current account surplus to 7.8% of GDP, up from an earlier projection of 5.2%, after the country posted a merchandise trade surplus of US$4.3 billion in the first half of the year—more than six times the average for the same period over the previous decade.
The research arm of global ratings agency Fitch Ratings said the stronger-than-expected performance was driven by robust gold exports and rising crude oil shipments, which significantly strengthened Ghana’s external position between January and June 2026. The H1 2026 surplus dwarfs the US$700 million average recorded for the first halves of 2016 to 2025.
“As such, we have revised up our 2026 current account surplus forecast to 7.8% of GDP, from 5.2% previously,” Fitch Solutions said.
Gold Emerges as Dominant Export Earner
The surge in export earnings was overwhelmingly driven by gold, which has become the dominant pillar of Ghana’s external trade. Gold export earnings jumped 49% to US8.39 billion in the same period of 2025, according to Bank of Ghana data.
The increase was almost entirely price-driven: the average realised gold price rose 49.7% to US$4,463.80 per fine ounce, while export volumes dipped marginally by 0.5% to 2.80 million fine ounces.
The country’s traditional gold export routes through the United Arab Emirates were disrupted by Middle East tensions, forcing costly rerouting through Shanghai and India, the World Bank noted. Despite these logistical hurdles, higher global prices more than compensated for the added costs.
Gold’s dominance has grown to the point where it accounted for approximately 68.3% of Ghana’s total export earnings by July 2026, according to Bank of Ghana figures. The International Monetary Fund has warned that this concentration leaves Ghana vulnerable to a sharp correction in gold prices, which could erode export receipts, foreign-exchange inflows, and fiscal resources.
Oil Sector Recovery Adds Momentum
Ghana’s crude oil sector also contributed to the stronger trade balance. Daily production at the Jubilee field climbed to about 95,000 barrels per day, up from a projected 68,000 barrels, following the drilling of four new wells, while the Sankofa field saw output rise to 28,000 barrels per day. Gas exports increased to approximately 282 million standard cubic feet per day, up from 245 million.
The rebound marks a reversal for a sector that had been in decline. Ghana’s total crude output had fallen from 71.4 million barrels in 2019 to about 36 million barrels in 2025 as aging fields matured without sufficient new drilling. Between January and May 2026 alone, the country produced 17.1 million barrels.
2027 Outlook: Moderation Expected But Surplus to Remain Sizeable
Fitch Solutions expects the current account surplus to narrow in 2027 but remain sizeable at 5.0% of GDP—still substantially stronger than the average deficit of 0.9% of GDP recorded over 2016–2025.
The firm’s assessment underscores the extent to which Ghana’s external position has shifted from persistent deficits to a structurally stronger footing, at least for now.
Risks Loom Despite Strong External Position
The sustainability of that position will depend heavily on continued commodity export performance and global price developments. While gold remains near historically elevated levels, it was trading at about US5,602.22 reached in January. A sustained decline in gold prices would directly erode the trade surplus that underpins the current account projection.
Ghana’s gross international reserves stood at approximately US3.5 billion annually to at least US$10 billion by 2030 in an effort to reduce reliance on gold.
Bottom Line
For now, Fitch Solutions’ revised 7.8% of GDP forecast marks a significant improvement on its previous outlook and reflects the stronger-than-anticipated performance of Ghana’s external sector in the first half of 2026. The latest projection points to a stronger external position for Ghana, with export earnings providing substantial support to the country’s current account—though the durability of that position rests squarely on the fortunes of global commodity markets.
