A new U.S. intelligence assessment warns that Iran and its allied groups are likely to retaliate against American targets following the death of Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who was killed in joint Israeli-U.S. strikes over the weekend.
The threat analysis, produced on February 28 by the Department of Homeland Security’s Office of Intelligence and Analysis and reviewed by Reuters, indicates that while a large-scale, physical assault on U.S. soil is not expected, the risk of targeted attacks remains significant.
“Iran and its proxies probably pose a persistent threat of targeted attacks in the Homeland,” the DHS report states. It adds that retaliatory actions or calls for such actions are “almost certain” to escalate now that reports of the Ayatollah’s death have been officially confirmed by Tehran.
In the immediate term, the assessment suggests the most probable form of retaliation will be low-level cyber operations. DHS analysts anticipate that Iran-aligned “hacktivists” may conduct website defacements and distributed denial-of-service (DDoS) attacks against U.S. networks.
The warning comes as the regional conflict rapidly expands. Following Saturday’s strikes, which were initially announced by Israel and former U.S. President Donald Trump, Iran confirmed Khamenei’s death on Sunday. The military confrontation widened further on Monday as Israel launched attacks on Lebanon in response to fire from the Iran-backed militant group Hezbollah. Concurrently, Tehran has continued missile and drone attacks targeting Gulf states that host American military bases.
The DHS assessment also predicts that Iran will intensify its campaign against U.S. and allied interests across the Middle East. Furthermore, analysts believe Tehran will attempt to blame senior U.S. officials for any future unrest, particularly in response to calls for regime change.
In a statement responding to the intelligence, Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem said, “I am in direct coordination with our federal intelligence and law enforcement partners as we continue to closely monitor and thwart any potential threats to the homeland.”
The threat of violence within the U.S. is also under scrutiny following a deadly shooting in Austin, Texas. On Sunday, a gunman opened fire at a bar, killing at least two people before being fatally shot by police. Authorities stated it is too early to determine if the attack was directly motivated by the overseas conflict. However, a U.S. law enforcement official noted that the suspect was seen in a photo wearing a shirt featuring an Iranian flag and the word “IRAN,” as well as a sweatshirt emblazoned with “Property of Allah.”
