Ivory Coast is on track to accumulate approximately 200,000 metric tonnes of unsold cocoa by the close of its main crop season in March, as a stubborn price standoff between government regulators and international buyers threatens to leave farmers unpaid and global markets unsettled.
The world’s leading cocoa producer, which together with Ghana supplies roughly half of global cocoa, is watching stockpiles grow at both inland storage facilities and port terminals as beans from the current harvest fail to find buyers.
At the heart of the crisis lies the government’s October decision to set farmgate prices significantly above prevailing international market rates. The move, intended to protect farmer incomes, has instead left trading companies facing substantial losses on any purchases made at the regulated price.
The resulting surplus has contributed to a 50% decline in global cocoa prices this year, with values recently touching a three-year low.
Mid-Crop Sales Provide Limited Respite
Despite the paralysis in main crop trading, Ivory Coast has secured agreements to sell approximately 200,000 tonnes from the upcoming April-to-September mid-crop to international buyers, according to local trade and government sources.
The mid-crop, typically processed domestically and considered lower quality, traditionally commands lower prices than the main harvest.
Government Steps In, But Gaps Remain
In late January, authorities pledged to purchase 100,000 tonnes of unsold cocoa at a cost of roughly $500 million, aiming to provide liquidity for farmers awaiting payment. However, trade executives suggest the actual volume requiring government intervention could be substantially larger.
Industry sources indicate that Ivorian intermediaries have already defaulted on at least 100,000 tonnes of main crop purchase contracts. Additionally, a further 100,000 tonnes expected to be harvested before March’s end may also remain unsold should farmgate prices remain unadjusted.
Regulator Rejects Estimates
The Abidjan-based Coffee and Cocoa Council has dismissed market estimates of unsold stocks as inaccurate, though it has not provided alternative figures.
Meanwhile, the agriculture minister has signalled that farmgate prices for the upcoming mid-crop will be announced by the end of February — earlier than usual — following Ghana’s recent decision to slash farmer prices by nearly one-third amid payment delays and declining world prices.
Industry sources suggest Ivory Coast is weighing a similar adjustment to restore market alignment and revive cocoa sales.
