Ghana’s sovereign credit rating has been maintained at ‘B-/B’ with a stable outlook by S&P Global Ratings, which acknowledges signs of economic recovery while cautioning that fiscal and external vulnerabilities remain.
The ratings agency said stronger economic growth and rising export volumes—especially in gold—have significantly boosted foreign currency reserves, helping to stabilise the country’s external position. Recent fiscal reforms and tighter expenditure controls are also expected to keep budget deficits more contained than in the period leading up to Ghana’s debt crisis in late 2022.
However, S&P warned that Ghana remains exposed to global shocks, particularly ongoing tensions in the Middle East. Any escalation could drive up fuel and transport costs, reignite inflation, increase government borrowing costs, and weigh on investor confidence.
Current account surplus tops $9 billion
Ghana’s current account performance has strengthened considerably, supported by favourable commodity prices and robust export earnings. The country recorded a surplus of more than $9 billion in 2025, while gross foreign reserves rose to record levels. S&P cautioned that this position could weaken if global prices for key exports—gold, cocoa, and oil—decline.
The agency highlighted progress in Ghana’s debt restructuring programme, noting that the government has either completed or reached agreements in principle on nearly all targeted debt. This has eased immediate financing pressures and contributed to improved macroeconomic stability.
High debt service costs, fiscal discipline concerns remain
At the same time, S&P pointed to ongoing challenges, including high debt servicing costs, which are projected to consume a significant share of government revenue in the coming years. It also cited structural weaknesses in public financial management and the risk that fiscal discipline may not be sustained over time, particularly during election cycles.
While inflation has eased significantly from recent highs, the agency expects it to rise moderately in 2026 due to external pressures. The Ghanaian cedi has shown signs of stability after a period of volatility, supported by improved foreign exchange inflows.
Outlook: Upgrade possible, but risks remain
Looking ahead, S&P said Ghana’s rating could be upgraded if the government maintains fiscal discipline, reduces debt servicing burdens, and strengthens its external buffers. Conversely, any slowdown in reforms, renewed fiscal slippage, or setbacks in the debt restructuring process could put downward pressure on the rating.
