The World Bank has issued a stark warning that Ghana’s heavy reliance on gold and cocoa exports, combined with mounting pressures in the energy sector, could rapidly reverse the country’s recent macroeconomic gains and undermine its fragile economic recovery .
Speaking at the launch of the World Bank Group’s 10th Ghana Economic Update in Accra on August 26, World Bank Division Director for Ghana, Liberia and Sierra Leone, Dr Robert Taliercio O’Brien, identified both external and domestic risks that threaten the country’s economic stability .
External Shocks and Export Concentration
Dr Taliercio O’Brien cautioned that a prolonged conflict in the Middle East could exacerbate global trade disruptions, driving higher energy prices and production costs while fueling broad inflationary pressures on the Ghanaian economy .
“Externally, the spillover effects from a prolonged Middle East conflict can exacerbate global trade disruptions, leading to higher energy prices, production costs, and broad inflationary pressures on the economy,” he said .
The World Bank also highlighted Ghana’s dangerous over-reliance on gold and cocoa as major export commodities, warning that the country remains vulnerable to adverse price shifts that could quickly reverse external gains and pressure the exchange rate, inflation, and public finances .
The warning comes as fresh data from the Ghana Statistical Service shows that gold accounted for 63.1 per cent of Ghana’s total exports in 2025, up from 38.5 per cent in 2004 . Gold exports reached an estimated US$20.2 billion in 2025, exceeding earnings from cocoa and crude oil combined . By July 2026, gold’s share had risen to approximately 68.3 per cent of total export earnings .
The Ghana Statistical Service has described this concentration as a major exposure risk. “Gold is our anchor, but at the same time it is our greatest exposure,” said Government Statistician Dr Alhassan Iddrisu, adding that “when one product carries an economy, a swing in its world price is felt by everyone, from the national treasury to traders and households” .
The IMF has also warned that gold accounted for more than 65 per cent of Ghana’s merchandise exports in 2025 and is expected to account for an even larger share in 2026. The Fund cautioned that a significant fall in international gold prices could quickly reduce export receipts, foreign-exchange inflows, and fiscal resources . This concern is particularly acute as gold has declined roughly 23 per cent from its all-time peak of US$5,602.22 per ounce in January 2026 .
Energy Sector: A ‘Ticking Time Bomb’
The World Bank identified pressures within state-owned enterprises, particularly in the energy sector, as a key domestic risk to Ghana’s economic outlook .
Dr Taliercio O’Brien disclosed that delays in implementing energy sector recovery programmes are costing the country approximately US$1 billion annually — a sum he described as “staggering” .
His assessment aligns with a recent analysis by the Institute of Economic Research and Public Policy (IERPP), which found that Ghana’s energy sector recorded a financial shortfall of about US$1.4 billion in 2025, equivalent to 1.2 per cent of GDP, despite consumers absorbing a cumulative tariff increase of approximately 40 per cent from March 2025 .
Finance Minister Dr Cassiel Ato Forson has previously described the energy sector crisis as a “ticking time bomb,” warning that projected cumulative financial shortfalls were expected to exceed nine billion dollars by 2026, even with government interventions .
Critical inefficiencies continue to plague the sector. According to Dr Forson, the Electricity Company of Ghana collects only 62 per cent of the total energy it purchases, with 35 per cent of its revenue consumed by its own operations . Unpaid legacy arrears stood at US2.2 billion in 2024, despite substantial government transfers .
COCOBOD’s Financial Strains
The World Bank also raised serious concerns about the financial and operational challenges at the Ghana Cocoa Board (COCOBOD), warning that these inefficiencies are taking a significant toll on farmers and public finances .
“COCOBOD’s financial and operational inefficiencies are taking a toll on farmers and the public’s finances,” Dr Taliercio O’Brien said .
The Bank called for far-reaching reforms to the COCOBOD Act to promote market-based principles and minimise quasi-fiscal risks .
“We welcome continued discussion and debate on the COCOBOD Act, and we suggest that far-reaching reforms of the Act are needed to promote market-based principles and minimise quasi-fiscal risks,” Dr Taliercio O’Brien stated .
The World Bank has previously warned that COCOBOD’s involvement in activities beyond its core mandate has heightened financial risks, particularly as persistent operational challenges, despite record-high global cocoa prices, have undermined Ghana’s cocoa production and left the agency owing significant amounts to suppliers .
A Critical Juncture
Dr Taliercio O’Brien said Ghana’s economic recovery remained “structurally incomplete” despite significant improvements in key macroeconomic indicators, with the country’s heavy dependence on gold and cocoa exposing the economy to fluctuations in international commodity prices .
He stressed the need for Ghana to strengthen its fiscal position and reduce reliance on measures that could create additional pressure on public finances.
“Without decisive action in both areas, the fiscal gains achieved under the IMF programme could quickly erode,” he warned .
The World Bank’s assessment comes as Ghana’s economy expanded by 6.0 per cent in 2025, its fastest pace since 2019, before accelerating to 6.4 per cent in the first quarter of 2026 . Inflation has fallen sharply from 23.2 per cent in February 2025 to 4.6 per cent currently, while public debt dropped from 70.3 per cent of GDP in 2024 to 49 per cent at the end of 2025 .
However, the Bank cautioned that these gains remain vulnerable if structural constraints in the energy and agricultural sectors are not urgently addressed . Diversifying Ghana’s export base and implementing reforms that support market-based economic activity would be critical to building a more resilient economy, the Bank urged .
